2019年(nian)7月份CPI和(he)PPI總(zong)體平(ping)穩 略有升(sheng)降
——國家統計局(ju)城市司處長(chang)董雅秀(xiu)解讀(du)2019年7月份CPI和PPI數據
國家統(tong)計(ji)局今(jin)天發布(bu)了2019年(nian)7月份全國CPI(居民消費(fei)價格指(zhi)數(shu)(shu))和(he)PPI(工(gong)業(ye)生產(chan)者出廠價格指(zhi)數(shu)(shu))數(shu)(shu)據。對此,國家統(tong)計(ji)局城市司處(chu)長(chang)董(dong)雅秀進行了解讀。
一、CPI環比由降轉漲,同比漲幅略有擴大
從環比看,CPI由(you)(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)0.1%轉為(wei)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.4%。其中(zhong),食(shi)品價格(ge)(ge)由(you)(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)0.3%轉為(wei)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.9%,影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.19個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點;非(fei)食(shi)品價格(ge)(ge)由(you)(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)0.1%轉為(wei)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.3%,影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.22個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。在食(shi)品中(zhong),部分(fen)(fen)(fen)地區天氣炎熱、降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)水偏多(duo),不利(li)于鮮菜生產和儲運,價格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.6%,影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.06個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。受非(fei)洲(zhou)豬(zhu)瘟疫情影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang),豬(zhu)肉供(gong)應稍緊,價格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)7.8%,影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.20個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。蛋雞(ji)進入歇伏期(qi),產蛋率(lv)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang),雞(ji)蛋價格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)5.0%,影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.03個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。時(shi)令瓜果大量(liang)上(shang)(shang)(shang)市,鮮果價格(ge)(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)6.2%,影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)約(yue)(yue)0.14個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。在非(fei)食(shi)品中(zhong),暑(shu)期(qi)出(chu)行增(zeng)加,飛機票、旅(lv)行社(she)收費和賓館住宿價格(ge)(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)19.3%、8.6%和2.2%,合計影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.19個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。受成(cheng)品油(you)調價影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang),汽油(you)和柴油(you)價格(ge)(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)1.9%和2.0%,合計影(ying)(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)約(yue)(yue)0.04個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。
從同(tong)比看,CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲2.8%,漲幅比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)擴大(da)0.1個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)。其中,食品價格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲9.1%,漲幅比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)擴大(da)0.8個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian),影響(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲約(yue)1.74個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian);非食品價格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲1.3%,漲幅比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)回(hui)落(luo)0.1個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian),影響(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲約(yue)1.04個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)。在(zai)食品中,鮮果價格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲39.1%,漲幅比上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)回(hui)落(luo)3.6個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian);豬(zhu)肉(rou)(rou)(rou)價格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲27.0%,漲幅擴大(da)5.9個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)。上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)述兩項合(he)計(ji)影響(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲約(yue)1.22個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)。雞(ji)蛋、雞(ji)肉(rou)(rou)(rou)、牛肉(rou)(rou)(rou)、羊(yang)肉(rou)(rou)(rou)和鮮菜價格(ge)漲幅在(zai)5.2%至11.4%之間。在(zai)非食品中,醫療保健、教育文化(hua)和娛(yu)樂、居住(zhu)價格(ge)分別(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲2.6%、2.3%和1.5%,合(he)計(ji)影響(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲約(yue)0.80個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)。據測算,在(zai)7月(yue)份2.8%的同(tong)比漲幅中,去年價格(ge)變動的翹尾(wei)影響(xiang)約(yue)為1.2個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian),新漲價影響(xiang)約(yue)為1.6個百(bai)(bai)(bai)分點(dian)(dian)(dian)。
二、PPI環比降幅收窄,同比略有下降
從環(huan)比(bi)(bi)看(kan),PPI下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.2%,降(jiang)幅(fu)比(bi)(bi)上月收(shou)(shou)窄(zhai)(zhai)0.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。其中(zhong)(zhong),生產資(zi)(zi)料(liao)(liao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.3%,降(jiang)幅(fu)比(bi)(bi)上月收(shou)(shou)窄(zhai)(zhai)0.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian);生活資(zi)(zi)料(liao)(liao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)持平(ping)。從調查(cha)的(de)40個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)大(da)類看(kan),價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上漲(zhang)(zhang)的(de)有(you)(you)(you)18個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)的(de)17個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge),持平(ping)的(de)5個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)。在主(zhu)要行(xing)業(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong),由(you)降(jiang)轉漲(zhang)(zhang)的(de)有(you)(you)(you)黑色(se)金屬冶煉和壓延(yan)加工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye),上漲(zhang)(zhang)0.6%;有(you)(you)(you)色(se)金屬冶煉和壓延(yan)加工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye),上漲(zhang)(zhang)0.1%,其中(zhong)(zhong)金冶煉上漲(zhang)(zhang)4.7%,銀冶煉上漲(zhang)(zhang)3.3%。降(jiang)幅(fu)擴(kuo)大(da)的(de)有(you)(you)(you)石(shi)油和天然(ran)氣開采(cai)業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)5.4%,比(bi)(bi)上月擴(kuo)大(da)1.5個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian);石(shi)油、煤炭及其他燃料(liao)(liao)加工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)2.4%,擴(kuo)大(da)0.5個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian);煤炭開采(cai)和洗選業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)1.5%,擴(kuo)大(da)1.4個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。降(jiang)幅(fu)收(shou)(shou)窄(zhai)(zhai)的(de)有(you)(you)(you)化學(xue)原料(liao)(liao)和化學(xue)制品(pin)制造業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.5%,收(shou)(shou)窄(zhai)(zhai)0.6個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian);非金屬礦物制品(pin)業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.3%,收(shou)(shou)窄(zhai)(zhai)0.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。此外,黑色(se)金屬礦采(cai)選業(ye)(ye)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上漲(zhang)(zhang)4.6%,漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)比(bi)(bi)上月擴(kuo)大(da)0.9個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。
從同(tong)比看,PPI由上(shang)月持平轉為(wei)(wei)(wei)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.3%。其(qi)中(zhong),生產(chan)資料(liao)價(jia)格(ge)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.7%,降(jiang)(jiang)幅比上(shang)月擴大(da)(da)(da)0.4個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點;生活資料(liao)價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)0.8%,漲(zhang)(zhang)幅比上(shang)月回(hui)落0.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。在(zai)主要行業(ye)(ye)中(zhong),漲(zhang)(zhang)幅擴大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)有(you)黑色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)礦(kuang)(kuang)采選(xuan)業(ye)(ye),上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)23.7%,比上(shang)月擴大(da)(da)(da)5.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點;有(you)色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)礦(kuang)(kuang)采選(xuan)業(ye)(ye),上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)1.9%,擴大(da)(da)(da)1.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。漲(zhang)(zhang)幅回(hui)落的(de)(de)(de)有(you)燃(ran)氣生產(chan)和(he)(he)供應業(ye)(ye),上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)3.0%,回(hui)落1.4個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點;煤炭(tan)開采和(he)(he)洗選(xuan)業(ye)(ye),上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)1.2%,回(hui)落2.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。降(jiang)(jiang)幅擴大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)有(you)石油(you)和(he)(he)天然氣開采業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)8.3%,擴大(da)(da)(da)6.5個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點;石油(you)、煤炭(tan)及其(qi)他燃(ran)料(liao)加工(gong)業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)5.1%,擴大(da)(da)(da)3.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點;化(hua)學原料(liao)和(he)(he)化(hua)學制品制造業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)4.0%,擴大(da)(da)(da)0.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。降(jiang)(jiang)幅收(shou)窄的(de)(de)(de)有(you)黑色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)冶煉和(he)(he)壓(ya)延加工(gong)業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.4%,收(shou)窄0.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點;有(you)色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)冶煉和(he)(he)壓(ya)延加工(gong)業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.3%,收(shou)窄1.8個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。據測算(suan),在(zai)7月份(fen)0.3%的(de)(de)(de)同(tong)比降(jiang)(jiang)幅中(zhong),去年價(jia)格(ge)變動的(de)(de)(de)翹尾影響約為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點,新漲(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)影響約為(wei)(wei)(wei)-0.5個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。
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