2019年(nian)8月份(fen)CPI、PPI漲跌(die)幅基本(ben)穩(wen)定
——國(guo)家統(tong)計局城市司高級統(tong)計師沈(shen)赟解(jie)讀2019年8月份CPI和PPI數據
國(guo)家(jia)統(tong)計局今天發布了2019年(nian)8月份全國(guo)CPI(居民消費價(jia)格指(zhi)數)和PPI(工(gong)業生產者出廠價(jia)格指(zhi)數)數據。對此(ci),國(guo)家(jia)統(tong)計局城市司高級統(tong)計師沈赟進行了解讀。
一、CPI環比漲幅略有擴大,同比漲幅與上月相同
從(cong)環(huan)比(bi)看,CPI上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)0.7%,漲(zhang)(zhang)幅比(bi)上(shang)月擴(kuo)大(da)0.3個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。其中(zhong),食品價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)3.2%,漲(zhang)(zhang)幅擴(kuo)大(da)2.3個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點,影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.64個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點;非食品價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)0.1%,漲(zhang)(zhang)幅回落0.2個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點,影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.07個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。食品中(zhong),豬肉供應(ying)偏緊,價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)23.1%,漲(zhang)(zhang)幅比(bi)上(shang)月擴(kuo)大(da)15.3個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點,影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.62個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。受中(zhong)秋(qiu)節(jie)臨近和(he)消費替(ti)代影(ying)(ying)響(xiang),雞蛋、牛肉、羊肉、雞肉和(he)鴨(ya)肉價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)2.0%—5.9%,合計(ji)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.10個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。受臺風及高(gao)溫天氣影(ying)(ying)響(xiang),鮮菜價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)2.8%,影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)CPI上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.07個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。時(shi)令瓜果大(da)量上(shang)市,鮮果價(jia)(jia)格(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)10.1%,影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)CPI下(xia)降(jiang)約(yue)(yue)0.22個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點。非食品中(zhong),旅館住宿、飛(fei)機(ji)票和(he)旅行社收費價(jia)(jia)格(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)1.6%、0.8%和(he)0.3%;汽(qi)油(you)和(he)柴油(you)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別下(xia)降(jiang)1.1%和(he)1.2%。
從同(tong)比(bi)(bi)看,CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2.8%,漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)與上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)相同(tong)。其中,食品價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)10.0%,漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)擴大0.9個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian),影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)1.93個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian);非食品價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)1.1%,漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)回落0.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian),影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.91個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。食品中,豬肉價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)46.7%,漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)擴大19.7個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian);鮮果價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)24.0%,漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)回落15.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian);牛(niu)肉、羊肉和雞肉價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)在11.6%—12.5%之間。上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)述五(wu)項合計影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)1.66個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。鮮菜價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.8%,影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)約(yue)(yue)0.02個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian),為(wei)(wei)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)連續上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)18個(ge)(ge)(ge)月(yue)后(hou)首次轉降(jiang)(jiang)。非食品中,醫(yi)療保健、教育文化和娛樂、居住價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2.3%、2.1%和1.0%,合計影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)CPI上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)約(yue)(yue)0.68個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。據測算(suan),在8月(yue)份2.8%的(de)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)中,去年價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)變(bian)動的(de)翹尾影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)0.6個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian),新漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)(jia)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)約(yue)(yue)為(wei)(wei)2.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。
二、PPI環比降幅收窄,同比降幅略有擴大
從環比(bi)看,PPI下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.1%,降(jiang)(jiang)幅(fu)比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)收(shou)窄(zhai)0.1個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。其(qi)中,生(sheng)產資料價(jia)格(ge)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.2%,降(jiang)(jiang)幅(fu)比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)收(shou)窄(zhai)0.1個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);生(sheng)活資料價(jia)格(ge)由(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)持(chi)平(ping)轉為上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)0.2%。從調(diao)查(cha)的(de)40個(ge)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)行業(ye)(ye)大(da)類看,價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)的(de)有(you)14個(ge),比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)減少(shao)4個(ge);持(chi)平(ping)的(de)9個(ge),增加(jia)4個(ge);下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)的(de)17個(ge),與(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)相同。主要行業(ye)(ye)中,漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)擴(kuo)大(da)的(de)有(you)農副食品加(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye),上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)1.4%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)擴(kuo)大(da)1.3個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);有(you)色金(jin)屬冶(ye)煉和壓(ya)延加(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye),上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)0.3%,擴(kuo)大(da)0.2個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),其(qi)中銀冶(ye)煉上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)5.8%,金(jin)冶(ye)煉上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)4.8%。由(you)漲(zhang)(zhang)轉降(jiang)(jiang)的(de)有(you)黑色金(jin)屬冶(ye)煉和壓(ya)延加(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.7%;汽車(che)制(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.2%。降(jiang)(jiang)幅(fu)收(shou)窄(zhai)的(de)有(you)煤炭(tan)開(kai)采和洗(xi)選業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.2%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)收(shou)窄(zhai)1.3個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);化(hua)學原料和化(hua)學制(zhi)(zhi)品制(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)0.1%,收(shou)窄(zhai)0.4個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。此(ci)外,石油和天然氣開(kai)采業(ye)(ye)價(jia)格(ge)由(you)降(jiang)(jiang)轉平(ping);石油、煤炭(tan)及其(qi)他燃(ran)料加(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)價(jia)格(ge)由(you)降(jiang)(jiang)轉漲(zhang)(zhang),上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)0.9%。
從同比(bi)看,PPI下降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)0.8%,降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)0.5個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。其中,生(sheng)產資(zi)料(liao)(liao)價格(ge)下降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)1.3%,降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)0.6個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);生(sheng)活資(zi)料(liao)(liao)價格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.7%,漲(zhang)幅比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)回(hui)落0.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。主要行業(ye)中,降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)的有(you)石油和(he)天然氣開采業(ye),下降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)9.1%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)0.8個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);石油、煤(mei)炭(tan)及其他燃料(liao)(liao)加工業(ye),下降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)5.9%,擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)0.8個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);化學原料(liao)(liao)和(he)化學制品(pin)制造業(ye),下降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)4.6%,擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)0.6個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);黑色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)冶煉和(he)壓延(yan)加工業(ye),下降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)3.1%,擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)2.7個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。漲(zhang)幅回(hui)落的有(you)黑色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)礦(kuang)采選(xuan)業(ye),上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)21.7%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)回(hui)落2.0個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);煤(mei)炭(tan)開采和(he)洗選(xuan)業(ye),上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)0.9%,回(hui)落0.3個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。漲(zhang)幅擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)的有(you)有(you)色(se)金(jin)屬(shu)礦(kuang)采選(xuan)業(ye),上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)3.7%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)1.8個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian);農(nong)副食品(pin)加工業(ye),上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.8%,擴(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)大(da)(da)1.1個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。據測(ce)算,在8月(yue)(yue)份0.8%的同比(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅中,去年(nian)價格(ge)變動的翹尾影響約為-0.2個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian),新漲(zhang)價影響約為-0.6個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)。
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